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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Saint Louis

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:148.0
Current RPI:148
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:96
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16148.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Louis.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Seattle (165.0)WACH62-46W100%0.0
11-16Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCN77-71W100%0.0
11-17Providence (32.0)BEN90-63L0%0.0
11-22Detroit (318.0)HorzH70-72L0%0.0
11-28Western Michigan (177.0)MACH51-65L0%0.0
12-2Butler (41.0)BEA75-45L0%0.0
12-6Southern Illinois (100.0)MVCH74-69W100%0.0
12-9Houston (18.0)AmerH58-77L0%0.0
12-12Murray St. (48.0)OVCH69-55W100%0.0
12-16Oregon St. (137.0)P12A63-60L0%0.0
12-19Campbell (267.0)BSthH74-66W100%0.0
12-22Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH78-48W100%0.0
12-30La Salle (202.0)A10A83-60L0%0.0
1-3Davidson (47.0)A10A54-51L0%0.0
1-6Richmond (176.0)A10H69-62W100%0.0
1-9Rhode Island (19.0)A10H65-72L0%0.0
1-13George Mason (201.0)A10A86-81L0%0.0
1-17Duquesne (259.0)A10H76-63W100%0.0
1-20Massachusetts (240.0)A10A47-66W100%0.0
1-23VCU (135.0)A10H74-75L0%0.0
1-27Dayton (146.0)A10H75-65W100%0.0
1-31Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A59-60W100%0.0
2-3Fordham (290.0)A10H73-50W100%0.0
2-7St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10A79-56L0%0.0
2-10La Salle (202.0)A10H70-62W100%0.0
2-17Richmond (176.0)A10A66-72W100%0.0
2-20Dayton (146.0)A10A53-50L0%0.0
2-24George Washington (195.0)A10H62-53W100%0.0
2-28Duquesne (259.0)A10A76-69L0%0.0
3-3St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H56-64L0%0.0
3-8George Washington (195.0)A10N70-63W100%0.0
3-9Davidson (47.0)A10N78-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Louis's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Saint Louis's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Saint Louis.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Saint LouisA1026.1326.1345.7145.71-2.24-2.24
DavidsonA103.833.8363.3363.331.021.02
DuquesneA103.813.8150.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA103.813.8176.6776.672.032.03
RichmondA103.803.8040.0040.00-0.76-0.76
George WashingtonA103.783.7848.3948.39-0.12-0.12
DaytonA103.713.7144.8344.83-0.38-0.38
La SalleA103.683.6840.0040.00-0.74-0.74
Rhode IslandA102.372.3777.4277.421.301.30
VCUA102.302.3053.1253.120.140.14
MassachusettsA102.292.2940.6240.62-0.43-0.43
FordhamA102.272.2730.0030.00-0.91-0.91
Saint Joseph'sA102.242.2451.6151.610.070.07
George MasonA102.242.2446.8846.88-0.14-0.14
ProvidenceBE1.681.6860.6160.610.360.36
Murray St.OVC1.671.6785.7185.711.191.19
DetroitHorz1.671.6717.2417.24-1.09-1.09
Southern IllinoisMVC1.671.6761.2961.290.380.38
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.641.6442.8642.86-0.23-0.23
ButlerBE1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
SeattleWAC1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
Virginia TechACC1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Western MichiganMAC1.591.5948.2848.28-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer1.591.5978.1278.120.890.89
CampbellBSth1.561.5648.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P121.561.5648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.210.2188.2488.240.160.16
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
TempleAmer0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
XavierBE0.160.1684.8584.850.110.11
AkronMAC0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
BucknellPat0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
GeorgetownBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
BelmontOVC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
PennIvy0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
VMISC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
HarvardIvy0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
MarquetteBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LibertyBSth0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
ToledoMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VermontAE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
TulaneAmer0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
MercerSC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01